The ABCs of BCS
Only seven have legitimate shot at national title game
Jake Curtis - SFChroncle
Monday, November 13, 2006
The BCS standings have become the focus of college football, so we begin our three R's by reviewing the top seven candidates to reach the Jan. 8 national championship game.
Each has a major obstacle or two to get past before it can claim to deserve a berth in the title game. Each also has things working for and against it in its quest to finish among the top two in the final BCS standings.
Louisville, West Virginia, Wisconsin and Wake Forest conceivably could get into the title game, but these seven, listed in order of their BCS ranking, have more reasonable chances:
-- Ohio State: The Buckeyes have been No. 1 all season, and they have the front-runner for the Heisman Trophy, Troy Smith. Biggest obstacle: Michigan. Biggest BCS advantage: Even if they lose to Michigan, but do not get swamped, the Buckeyes might have built up enough respect to finish second in the BCS standings. Biggest BCS disadvantage: Saturday is Ohio State's final game; most other national contenders have at least two games remaining, giving the rest a chance to leave a better final impression.
-- Michigan: The Wolverines are the only team to have beaten two teams currently ranked in the top 10 of the BCS standings (No. 5 Notre Dame and No. 9 Wisconsin). Biggest obstacle: Ohio State. Biggest BCS advantage: same as Ohio State's. Biggest BCS disadvantage: same as Ohio State's.
-- USC: The Trojans finally are playing as expected. Since falling behind Oregon State 33-10, the Trojans have outscored opponents 98-10. Biggest obstacle: consecutive games against Cal and Notre Dame. Biggest BCS advantage: Beating Cal and Notre Dame would count heavily in Trojans' favor. Biggest BCS disadvantage: The loss to Oregon State might be tough to overlook.
-- Florida: The Gators have not been particularly impressive lately, winning their past three games by seven points or fewer, all against unranked teams. Biggest obstacle: SEC title game, probably against Arkansas. Biggest BCS advantage: Winning the SEC title game just hours before the final poll votes are cast would make a favorable last impression. Biggest BCS disadvantage: Saturday's game against Division I-AA Western Carolina has no upside.
-- Notre Dame: The Irish's only loss was to No. 2 Michigan, although their only win over a currently ranked team was on Sept. 2 against Georgia Tech. Biggest obstacle: USC on the road. Biggest BCS advantage: It is Notre Dame, with all that name entails. Biggest BCS disadvantage: It is Notre Dame, with all that name entails.
-- Rutgers: The Scarlet Knights are the surprise of the nation and proved against Louisville that their defense is top-10 caliber. Biggest obstacle: West Virginia on the road. Biggest BCS advantage: If they finish as one of two unbeaten teams from BCS conferences, how could they be kept out of the title game? After all, the BCS computers have Rutgers ranked No. 2, ahead of Ohio State. Biggest BCS disadvantage: Voters aren't convinced Rutgers is a national power.
-- Arkansas: Since that 50-14 loss to USC in the opener, the Hogs have run over everyone, including Tennessee and Auburn. Biggest obstacle: LSU and Florida. Biggest BCS advantage: Winning the SEC would count for a lot. Biggest BCS disadvantage: When making their final votes, pollsters will consider that USC game and find it hard to rank the Hogs No. 2.